Goal Time And Race Predictor

---
name: Goal Time And Race Predictor
description: Use when a HYROX athlete or coach provides paces, station times, and transition estimates and asks for a projected finish, a realistic goal-time range, or whether a target is feasible. Returns optimistic/expected/conservative finish, run/station/transition totals, a confidence band tied to data quality, and explicit assumptions and gaps - never a single guaranteed number and never false precision. It does not give in-race pacing instructions (route to hyrox-race-pacing-planner) and does not build a training plan.
category: assessment
risk_level: low
requires_current_rules: false
---

# Goal Time And Race Predictor

Project a HYROX finish as an honest **range**, not a single confident number. The
race is the fixed 8 × ~1 km runs interleaved with 8 stations through the roxzone
(see [race-structure](../../references/race-structure.md)), so a defensible
projection sums three things - running, station work, and transitions - and then
widens a band around them according to how good the input data is. The output is
optimistic / expected / conservative, with the assumptions and data gaps shown so
the athlete can audit it. Per
[coaching-principles](../../references/coaching-principles.md), predictions are
ranges with stated confidence; this skill never promises a finish time.

## The deterministic model (`lib/goal-time-model.ts`)

This skill is backed by a transparent, pure-function model. It makes no network
calls, reads no clock, and stores no athlete data. Describe it in prose so the
athlete can audit every number:… load the full skill through Skill Me